Every public, dated, falsifiable claim SymbiQ tracks about quantum computing (from
labs, executives, and regulators), logged with the date it was made and an archived copy of where it was said, checked against sources named before
we look, and resolved to Verified, Partially verified, Not
verified, or Unfalsifiable only when the deadline arrives. No deleting misses.
Right now: 20 claims tracked, 2 resolved.
Loading The Ledger…
If this does not fill in, the data could not be fetched. It lives at
data/claims/index.json.
Executive Order 14412 (The White House)Executive Order 14412 requires U.S. federal high-value assets to migrate to post-quantum key establishment by 31 December 2030, and to post-quantum digital signatures by 31 December 2031.Trackingby 31 Dec 2030
Opening…
GoogleGoogle has set 2029 as its internal deadline to complete post-quantum cryptography migration across its infrastructure.Trackingby 31 Dec 2029
Opening…
IBMIBM expects the first cases of verified quantum advantage to be confirmed by the wider community by the end of 2026.Trackingby 31 Dec 2026
Opening…
Rigetti ComputingRigetti's own roadmap commits to a 100+ qubit chiplet system in 2025, 150+ qubits in 2026, and 1,000+ qubits in 2027.Trackingby 31 Dec 2027
Opening…
QuNorthQuNorth said Magne, the logical-qubit machine it is buying from Microsoft and Atom Computing, would be ready for its first tasks by the new year 2026/27.Trackingby 31 Dec 2026
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NIS Cooperation Group (EU)The EU's NIS Cooperation Group set the end of 2026 for every Member State to have started a national post-quantum transition.Trackingby 31 Dec 2026
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IonQIonQ's roadmap puts 10,000 physical qubits on a single chip in 2027.Trackingby 31 Dec 2027
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IBMIBM will deliver Kookaburra, its first modular processor designed to store and process encoded information, in 2026.Trackingby 31 Dec 2026
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IBMIBM will deliver a large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computer (“Starling”) by 2029, running 100 million quantum operations on 200 logical qubits.Trackingby 31 Dec 2029
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Fujitsu and RIKENFujitsu and RIKEN scheduled the launch of a 1,000-qubit superconducting quantum computer for 2026.Trackingby 31 Dec 2026
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D-Wave Quantum Inc.D-Wave says its Advantage2 annealing quantum computer demonstrated quantum computational supremacy on a real-world magnetic-materials simulation problem, beating classical supercomputers.Trackingby 31 Dec 2026
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NISTNIST expects to finalise a standard for HQC, its backup post-quantum key-exchange algorithm, in 2027.Trackingby 31 Dec 2027
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MicrosoftMicrosoft says its Majorana 1 / Topological Core approach puts industrial-scale, meaningful quantum computing “years, not decades” away.Trackingby 19 Feb 2035
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NVIDIANVIDIA's Jensen Huang said truly useful quantum computers are 15 to 30 years away, with 20 years as the figure “a whole bunch of us would believe.”Trackingby 6 Jan 2040
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Atom ComputingAtom Computing and Microsoft announced a commercial quantum machine with 24 entangled logical qubits, available for delivery in 2025.ResolvedNot verifiedby 31 Dec 2025
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QuantinuumQuantinuum will deliver universal, fully fault-tolerant quantum computing (system “Apollo”) by 2030.Trackingby 31 Dec 2030
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IonQIonQ targeted 99.999% (“five nines”) logical two-qubit gate fidelity by the end of 2025.ResolvedNot verifiedby 31 Dec 2025
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PsiQuantumPsiQuantum planned to have its utility-scale quantum computing site near Brisbane operational by the end of 2027.Trackingby 31 Dec 2027
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PasqalPasqal's roadmap pointed to 10,000 qubits in 2026.Trackingby 31 Dec 2026
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QuEra ComputingQuEra will introduce a quantum computer with 100 logical qubits and over 10,000 physical qubits in 2026.Trackingby 31 Dec 2026
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Claimant scorecards
Rebuilt every time a claim resolves. A claimant needs
five resolved claims before we rank them; below that, the count shows but the rate is withheld, since
one lucky or unlucky guess could swing it 20 points.
Claimant
Tracked
Resolved
Weighted rate
Median slip
IBM
3
0
n<5
,
Quantinuum
1
0
n<5
,
Microsoft
1
0
n<5
,
Google
1
0
n<5
,
Executive Order 14412 (The White House)
1
0
n<5
,
IonQ
2
1
n<5
+265d
D-Wave Quantum Inc.
1
0
n<5
,
NVIDIA
1
0
n<5
,
Rigetti Computing
1
0
n<5
,
Atom Computing
1
1
n<5
+265d
QuEra Computing
1
0
n<5
,
Fujitsu and RIKEN
1
0
n<5
,
Pasqal
1
0
n<5
,
QuNorth
1
0
n<5
,
PsiQuantum
1
0
n<5
,
NIS Cooperation Group (EU)
1
0
n<5
,
NIST
1
0
n<5
,
Weighted rate needs ≥5 resolved claims before it ranks (n=0 of 17 claimants qualify so far). Slip is median days between the promised date and the actual one, positive means late.
Our own scorecard
Published with the same prominence as theirs. If we write
criteria that turn out unscoreable, that's our error, not the claimant's, and it counts here as
void.
20claims captured
2resolved
0void (our error)
0verdicts changed by right of reply
Nothing has resolved yet -- the Ledger was just seeded. This scorecard is honest at zero, not broken; it fills in as claims resolve, exactly like race.html's scoreboard did before its first weekly update.
How a claim moves through the Ledger
A claim only enters the Ledger if it is attributed to a named person or organisation,
dated, falsifiable (there's a stated observation that would make it
false), deadlined, and its resolution criteria are pre-registered before
tracking starts. If a claim can't clear that bar as stated, we either rewrite it with an explicit
SymbiQ-constructed interpretation (flagged as such; see
Microsoft's entry for a live example) or file it
as unfalsifiable, which is itself a published verdict.
Pre-registration and freeze.
Resolution criteria and resolver sources are locked the moment a claim starts tracking. Changing them
after the fact voids the claim from scoring, in public, never as a quiet edit.
A separate verdict. A verdict
is written after the deadline, in its own pass, against the criteria and sources frozen when the claim was
logged, and it cites every piece of evidence it uses. A drafted verdict is shown in full, marked as not yet
final, before it is published.
Archive at intake. No claim
starts tracking without an independent, dated snapshot of its source, and no verdict ships without one for
every piece of evidence it rests on, so an edited or deleted press release can't make a claim unprovable
later. Each link shows the date its copy was taken.
Void is our failure, not
theirs. Unscoreable criteria are our mistake, published with the same weight as any other
correction.
Right of reply. Any
claimant can answer a verdict at any time, through the correction
report or by email. The reply is published in full beside the verdict, and if it shows the verdict is
wrong, the verdict changes and the change is logged.
Claims, not people. The
verdict vocabulary has no word for lying, hype, or fraud, only whether what was said matches what
happened.
How claims are checked and scored is on How we check.
Any open claim below also carries a Your call panel, next to the crowd forecast, where
you can stake your own split of verified / partially verified / not verified. It's saved in this browser
only, scored the day the claim actually resolves, and never blended with a game score or a curriculum
answer — see The Standing for the honest reasoning behind keeping those
separate.
Cite it
The underlying data is
data/claims/index.json, and every claim has its own
permanent link (the # on each entry above), so anything here can be cited without citing us.
Seen a claim that belongs here?
No account needed. Send it in and it clears the same bar as everything above
(attributed, dated, falsifiable, deadlined) before the desk writes it up as a real entry with frozen
criteria. Nothing publishes automatically. The one thing that helps most is not the link — it is
telling us what would settle it: a claim nobody can write a resolution rule for cannot be
tracked here at all, and saying so is half the work.
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