IBM will deliver a large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computer (“Starling”) by 2029, running 100 million quantum operations on 200 logical qubits.

IBM said this on 2025-06-10. The Ledger scores it on 2029-12-31, against criteria fixed on 2026-08-27.

Tracking

What was said

IBM's published quantum roadmap sets 2029 as the delivery date for IBM Quantum Starling, described as capable of running 100 million quantum operations using 200 logical qubits.

technical roadmap, reported directly, IBM, 2025-06-10

Archived copy: https://web.archive.org/web/20251205062619/https://thequantuminsider.com/2025/06/12/engineering-fault-tolerance-ibms-modular-scalable-full-stack-quantum-roadmap/

How it is scored

Resolves VERIFIED if IBM has, by 31 Dec 2029, publicly demonstrated a machine matching the Starling specification (fault-tolerant, ~200 logical qubits, capable of on the order of 100 million quantum operations) -- an IBM announcement plus independent technical reporting confirming the specification counts. PARTIALLY_VERIFIED if a materially smaller or delayed system ships under the Starling name. NOT_VERIFIED if no fault-tolerant system in this class has shipped by the deadline plus the 30-day grace period.

Sources that will settle it: https://www.ibm.com/quantum/roadmap, https://research.ibm.com/blog, https://thequantuminsider.com.

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